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A Simulation of Water Temperature in the Upper Grande Ronde Basin with Future Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of salmon and other coldwater fishes.  For this study, we used a water temperature model of the Upper Grande Ronde River basin, an area of ongoing and potential salmon habitat restoration in NE Oregon.  The Heat Source model, a deterministic approach to simulate thermodynamics in a stream network, was calibrated to late summer (August) conditions using empirical data collected in 2010.  We employed this model to simulate future climate and stream flow conditions based on an ensemble of global climate models for two future emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and three periods (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s).  The simulations showed substantial increases to daily mean and maximum temperatures in future periods, which are important to consider in salmon and riparian restoration efforts.

Authors

Citation

Graves, D.  2012. A Simulation of Water Temperature in the Upper Grande Ronde Basin with Future Climate Change Scenarios. Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Technical Report #12-09 , Portland, Oregon.

Date

Oct 25th, 2012

Report No.

12-09

Media Type

CRITFC Technical Report

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