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2014 Fall Chinook Forecasts

The 2014 fall chinook forecasts were completed last month. The 2014 pre-season forecast for upriver fall chinook is for a record high run. The table below shows the 2013 forecasts, the 2013 actual returns, and the 2014 forecasts.

These forecasts are all based on the number of fish at the Columbia River mouth. There were good jack returns last year, but these high forecasts are really a result of the very high 3- and 4-year-old return last fall. We are expecting this run to be mostly older fish. It is too early to tell if there will really be a record run. Even if the run ends up being significantly under what is predicted, with a forecast this high, it should still be very large. It is important to remember that both treaty and non-treaty mainstem fisheries are managed on the actual run, not just the pre-season forecast. There should be lots of good fall chinook fishing this year in any event.

Unfortunately things don’t look as rosy for B steelhead and coho. The forecasts for these stocks are still being calculated, but preliminary findings suggest a pretty average coho run and a below average B steelhead run similar to the last couple years. While there is no hard limit on coho in tribal fisheries, a low B steelhead run will add a lot of complications to fall season fisheries, especially after mid-September.

Chinook River Mouth Run Sizes

2013 2014
February Forecast Actual Return February Forecast
Upriver Bright
(all Bright stock fish from upstream of McNary plus the Deschutes) 
432,500 784,100 973,300
Bonneville Pool Hatchery Spring Creek Hatchery tules 38,000 86,600 115,100
Bonneville Hatchery Upriver Bright 35,200 35,600 49,500
Pool Upriver Bright
(Bright stock fish from Little White, Klickitat, and Umatilla Hatcheries)
70,000 207,800 310,600
Up-River Total 575,700 1,114,100 1,448,500

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